The R number will be closely monitored as lockdown is relaxed and it involves lots of complex mathematics to determine the number, however the number of people dying will be a major factor.

The number one is the magic number, when the R number is below one the disease is under control, heading in the right direction and is going away!

Where the disease is seeded it will result in a higher “R “number in that area, and other factors which will increase the value:

  • The density of the population seen in big cities.
  • The elderly in nursing homes, their carers and as lockdown is eased and numbers of people visit their elderly.
  • Ethnic minorities.
  • Higher proportion of males.
  • The more deprived areas in the cities.
  • The number of people in a household.
  • The proportion of elderly in a household.
  • Underling conditions.
  • Herd immunity.

The factors above are often seen to influence other diseases and a major consideration for public health when not in a pandemic.